Chisinau wants Transdniestria to be part of Moldova, and (some in) Moscow may view this as a desirable result, too. But is it? And could it bring more peace … or just the opposite?

A deal between Moscow and Chisinau, bypassing Tiraspol, is bound to fail. For any solution to have staying power, it has to grow from what the people of Transdniestria want. They represent, after all, the most directly affected party.

Right now, Transdniestria is the most peaceful and calm of the frozen conflicts. It is also the one which has advanced most towards building a viable state with its own currency, an acceptable standard of living and a good prospect for economic survival. There are grounds to believe that the region is so peaceful precisely because Transdniestria currently lives as if it was already a separate state.

But when you take that away, and force the place to be part of Moldova, what will happen? A near totality of the 550,000 inhabitants of Transdniestria don’t want it. They are unlikely to accept any solution where they are not consulted, and which flies in the face of the outcome that 97% of them voted in favor of in 2006’s independence referendum.

All things considered, objectively and realistically, the best solution is a mutually negotiated and agreed-upon Friendship and Co-Operation Treaty.

This entry was posted on Thursday, April 17th, 2008 at 7:34 pm and is filed under Transdniestria musings. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.